BOM: La Niña WATCH continues—likelihood of La Niña in spring around 50%
The surface and sub-surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over recent months. While the cooling trend has eased compared to two weeks ago, over half of the surveyed international climate models anticipate this cooling will approach or exceed the threshold for La Niña during spring.
Other ENSO indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and cloudiness near the Date Line, are also consistent with a neutral ENSO state.
Much of the eastern Indian Ocean remains warmer than average; three of six models continue to suggest the possibility of a negative IOD developing by early spring. Most models show a broad spread of likely scenarios between the neutral and negative IOD range.
Source: BOM Climate Driver Update, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
