El Nino officially occurs in the Pacific Ocean since few months ago. Based on BOM forecast, it is expected to further strengthen and last until 2016. El Nino event will leave a strong impact at East Malaysia, or Borneo Island, less influence on the Peninsular Malaysia. Normal El Nino event will cause drought at the Western Pacific region. The prolong drought condition will consequently cause severe wildfire, thus the transboundary haze episode.
During strong El Nino event, the Pacific Ocean can trigger the El Nino in the Indian Ocean, or scientifically called as Positive Indian Ocean Dipole. If in coincidence both Pacific Ocean El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurring at the same time, it can cause severe drought in the Southeast Asia region, as the co-occurring event in 1997-98.
Unfortunately, based on the BOM and JAMSTEC forecast, both El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole could occur at the same time during late 2015. Thus, from top government down to local communities need to be highly alert and prepare for the worst impact.