JMA Declares El Nino 2014

JMA El Niño Outlook
( December 2014 – June 2015 )

Updated on 10 December 2014

  • El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific, although the atmospheric conditions does not indicate clear features of El Niño events.
  • It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue through winter.
  • A weak El Niño event is considered to have persisted since the Northern Hemisphere summer.

[El Niño / La Niña]

In November 2014, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +1.0°C. SSTs were above normal in most regions from the western to eastern equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperatures were remarkably above normal in the central equatorial Pacific. Easterly winds in the lower troposphere were weaker than normal in the central equatorial Pacific. These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific. However, atmospheric convective activities were below normal near the date line, and atmospheric conditions does not indicate clear features of El Niño events. Five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5C or above for four consecutive months from June to September, which means a weak El Niño event has persisted since the Northern Hemisphere summer.

The subsurface warm waters in the equatorial Pacific in November tend to maintain warmer-than-normal SSTs in the eastern part. The JMA’s El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal during the Northern Hemisphere winter, and will be near normal or above normal during the Northern Hemisphere spring. In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño conditions will continue through winter.

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in November. It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be near normal or below normal in the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring.

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in November. It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal in the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Source