- ENSO conditions are currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña);
- Some evidence of precursors to El Niño have emerged in the tropical Pacific;
- As of early April 2014, outlooks indicate likely continuation of neutral conditions into the earlier part of the second quarter of 2014;
- Two thirds of models surveyed favour El Niño development, with most of these suggesting that El Niño thresholds will be reached by July.
- If El Niño does develop, it is likely to continue through the remainder of 2014;
- The strength of the likely El Niño cannot be reliably estimated at the current time.
Current Situation and Outlook
The tropical Pacific continues to be ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the earlier part of the second quarter of 2014. However, temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed to levels that can occur prior to the onset of an El Nino event, while climate models surveyed by WMO experts show a steady warming of the tropical Pacific during the months ahead. A majority of models reach El Niño thresholds around the middle of the year. If an El Niño event does occur, it remains too early to determine its strength. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean conditions for further El Niño developments, and will assess the most likely local impacts.