NOAA El Niño Forecast February 2014

NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

6 February 2014

“Nearly all model forecasts indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, but afterwards, an increasing number of models suggest the possible onset of El Niño. Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific and the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the subsurface western Pacific potentially portend warming in the coming months. However, the spring is also historically associated with lower forecast skill, so the chance of El Niño developing after the spring is not much different from ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014″

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